The future will not be without problems. Some disagreements may arise between those who advocate more trilateral regulation and those who prefer more decentralization and sovereignty. These trends are already emerging. The left in all three countries seems more willing to downplay the assertion of sovereignty, a trend embodied by ideas such as a trilateral social charter and uniform regulations on health, safety and the environment. These North American equivalents of Jacques Delors could meet the native Margaret Thatchers, who will oppose the creation of the institutional and regulatory structures of NAFTA. Officials from all three countries insist on the limits of NAFTA. In fact, NAFTA, as currently requested, has no resemblance to the EC, which sets common external tariffs, allows for the free movement of workers and provides for increasingly supranational political and regulatory institutions. The United States had a trade surplus with NAFTA countries of $28.3 billion for services in 2009 and a trade deficit of $94.6 billion (an annual increase of 36.4%) for goods in 2010. This trade deficit accounted for 26.8% of the total U.S.

trade deficit in goods. [89] A 2018 study on global trade published by the Center for International Relations identified irregularities in the trade models of the NAFTA ecosystem using theoretical network analysis techniques. The study showed that the US trade balance was affected by opportunities for tax evasion in Ireland. [90] The composition of trade has also changed. Canada first entered a manufacturing recession after the free trade agreement came into force when branches of U.S. companies built behind Canada`s customs wall were abandoned. However, more internationally competitive manufacturing sectors flourished as long as the Canadian dollar (nicknamed the loonie for the floating loonie illustrated on the back) was relatively cheap. From a low of a Canadian dollar worth $0.65 in 2002, the loonie reached parity in 2007 and moved closer to parity until 2013 before slipping to $0.75 at the end of 2016. This appreciation was attributed to the rise of Canada`s natural resources – the motor vehicles that replaced oil and gas as Canada`s largest export to the United States in 2005. The value of the Canadian dollar depends on its commodity exports, and the depreciation resulted from the end of the boom that accompanied China`s slowdown.

Mexico has also realigned its diplomacy in light of its pragmatic economic interest. Mexico has already flirted with the Eastern bloc, made anti-American voices heard at the United Nations, undermined U.S. regional goals, supported Cuban-sponsored guerrillas, and romantically awaited an apocalyptic crisis of American capitalism. But the image of Mexican presidents embracing Fidel Castro has now been replaced by visits to Camp David. Indignant speeches about the treacherousness of economic imperialism have been replaced by speeches at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. Mexico`s offer to increase oil production during the Persian Gulf crisis is a step in the same direction. A free trade agreement can make the difference between a friendly or ambivalent neighbour and between common goals or regional conflicts. Nevertheless, NAFTA has been a constant target in the broader free trade debate. President Donald J. Trump says it has undermined jobs and manufacturing in the United States, and in December 2019, his administration signed an updated version of the pact with Canada and Mexico, now known as the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). .